The ceasefire lasted exactly as long as most ceasefires in the Middle East do - enough for everyone to breathe out, too little for them to believe. On the evening of June 7, Iran fired ballistic missiles toward the north of Israel, with Haifa as the target. It's the first Iranian attack since a lull was declared on April 8.

The Israeli military (IDF) said it had detected launches from Iran and was working to intercept them. According to the official statement, "two Iranian missiles aimed at the north have already been intercepted." The number of casualties or confirmed damage has not been announced for now - which is usual in the first hours of such events, since the picture only clears once the dust settles.

In Tehran, according to reports, there was celebration in the streets as the missiles flew toward Israel. That scene - celebrating a launch - is the same on both sides of every such conflict, only with the flags swapped. And that is exactly what's hardest to watch from afar: to some this is revenge, to others a provocation, and to the ordinary people under the sirens just one more night in the shelter.

For the Balkans, used to its own lulls that shatter without warning, the question isn't whether Middle East ceasefires get broken - that's almost a rule - but how far the escalation will go this time before someone sits back down at the table. Because one thing is certain: every missile exchanged makes the next pause shorter than the last.