The Russian sinologist Nikolai Vavilov, one of the few Russian analysts who looks at China without partisan bias, argues that Beijing is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian oil. According to him, the Chinese leadership has grasped something fundamental: energy imports force you to play by someone else's rules. The solution? Wind power, solar parks, electric vehicles. China is investing in independence.

For Moscow, this is a strategic blow bigger than any EU or US sanction. China is not the "brother" of Cold War-era rhetoric. Chinese strategy goes far beyond buying cheap Russian oil - the goal is eliminating dependence not only on Russia, but on the Middle East and on vulnerable maritime trade routes too. That is a 20-year game, not a five-year one.

The paradox is that while China is weaning off Russian oil, the Chinese economic presence in Russia is exploding. Chinese cars, technology and industrial goods have penetrated Russian daily life deeply - with volumes greater than imports from the EU. Vavilov points out something that is rarely said openly in diplomatic circles: "The material quality of Chinese goods has become Beijing's most powerful message." Chinese cars work as an effective message without the need to control the media. They enter the garages, and then they enter the minds.

For Balkan countries watching how China and Russia struggle with asymmetric dynamics, this is the lesson: economic dependence never runs in one direction. Moscow and Beijing started with "unlimited partnership", but in five years the picture already looks different. China is disciplinedly building its energy independence while Russia drifts into a war it can neither pay for nor end. The question that follows: what happens when Russia realises that its "greatest ally" is calmly going around it?