On Monday morning, Iran carried out a wave of missile strikes on US military bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait - the latest escalation that shatters the fragile ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran. But between what Iran claims and what actually happened, there is a big gap worth looking at soberly.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard boasted that it had destroyed fuel and ammunition depots at the „Prince Hassan“ air base in Jordan, drone command centers in Bahrain and air defense systems in Kuwait. Judging by their statements, it sounds as if America is on its knees.

The reality on the ground is different. According to independent sources, the four missiles that entered Jordanian airspace were intercepted and shot down - with no injuries and no reported material damage. In Bahrain, air raid sirens sounded and residents were told to take shelter, but there is no confirmed damage to US facilities so far. In other words, the claims of a „destroyed army“ remain exactly that - claims from one side.

This is a pattern anyone who follows wars recognizes: each side inflates its successes and minimizes its losses. That's why the first rule when reading military statements is to ask - who is saying this, and what do they gain from it sounding louder than it is?

The broader context is worrying. The war broke out at the end of February with US-Israeli strikes in which Iran's supreme leader was killed, and since then it has been waged with interruptions and attempts at a truce that keep failing. Before this Iranian response, US forces carried out another wave of strikes on Iran - dozens of targets, including air defense systems, coastal radars and missile and drone capabilities.

For the Balkans, this isn't as distant a story as it looks. Every escalation in the Middle East hits oil and gas prices - and that means our fuel and electricity bills. A war waged thousands of kilometers away still finds its way to our pockets. The question is whether anyone actually wants this war to end, or whether everyone is just waiting for the other side to blink first.