Tehran sharpened its rhetoric after the American military strikes in the southern regions of Iran. Ebrahim Zolfagari, spokesman of the Iranian operational command „Khatam al-Anbiya," sent the message in fully direct terms: „Prepare for oil at 200 dollars a barrel."

The statement is not just symbolic. Oil prices reacted at once - Brent jumped above 98 dollars a barrel, rising more than 2% within hours. Traders on the energy markets don't react to Iranian rhetoric; they react to a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which critical shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf pass. One serious incident is enough for the market to fall into panic.

The context is almost grotesque. Talks in Doha between the US, Iran and third states are running in parallel with military strikes on Iranian soil. The agenda is serious - the fate of Iran's uranium stockpile, the status of sanctions, frozen assets. But how can two states negotiate Iran's nuclear programme while one is publicly hitting the other on the ground? Tehran has chosen to address that paradoxical reality - and to translate it into a price everyone will feel.

For a Balkan driver, that's a direct threat. Oil at 200 dollars is not an „American" problem - it's the price of petrol at 4 euros per litre. For delivery networks, for farmers, for travellers. The energy crises of the past decade showed the Balkans is the first region to feel prices, and the last to bring them back down.

The question no one is putting out loud: is 200 dollars a real threat or just rhetoric? Through the winter of 2024, the threat was 250 - and the market reached just under 95. Still, that doesn't mean Tehran is bluffing. One missile is enough to change the calendar for half a continent.