Behind closed doors, Monday's phone call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu turned into a row of a kind that rarely reaches the public. According to sources, Trump blew up after the Israeli prime minister announced new airstrikes on Beirut - precisely while Washington is conducting delicate talks with Iran. The words that allegedly flew have no place in a diplomatic textbook, but they reveal the real state of things: the ceasefire hangs by a thread, and the allies are cursing each other.

The quotes, as relayed by sources, are blunt: „You've gone crazy. You'd be in jail if not for me. I'm saving your ass. Now everyone hates you, they hate Israel because of this.” When a president talks to his allies like that behind the scenes, the question isn't whether the ceasefire is fragile - it's how long it was ever real.

The Iranian side isn't staying quiet. Negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that „concessions don't come through dialogue, but through missiles; in the negotiations our only goal is for them to understand.” Translated from diplomatic into plain language - Tehran sees the negotiations as a phase of the conflict, not a replacement for it. And that is an entirely different game from the one the cameras show.

Analysts are grim in their assessment: the ceasefire is temporary and unstable. Trump wants to avoid a major escalation before the congressional elections so the economy doesn't suffer; what's being negotiated is a narrow deal on the Strait of Hormuz, not a comprehensive peace; and Israel will likely deliver pre-emptive strikes if Iran restarts its weapons programmes. The conclusion? A new war looks „practically inevitable.”

For the Balkans, this isn't as distant a story as it seems. When oil prices depend on a single strait, and that strait depends on the mood of three leaders insulting each other over the phone - do we really think the consequences will stop at the Middle East? The petrol pump is closer to Tehran than it seems.