Trump will reject the Iranian proposal for opening the Strait of Hormuz, US sources confirm. The reason - the proposal covers nothing on Iran's nuclear programme, and that is exactly the topic Washington does not intend to give up pressure on.

The analysis says it openly: if the US accepts opening the strait without a solution on uranium enrichment, it loses its biggest leverage in the negotiations. Hormuz matters, but for Washington uranium matters more. The logic is brutal: tankers will sail again one day even without Iran; a nuclear weapon, once built, cannot be uninvented.

For Tehran, opening Hormuz is a "big concession" - that line of reasoning assumes the current blockade is painful enough for the West to drop the nuclear questions. But Washington answers differently. We are not here to make a swap. We are here for a package solution.

"Opening the strait without solving the issues tied to uranium enrichment in Iran could deprive the US of a key lever of pressure," American analysts explain. Translated - we do not take half a solution.

The result - the conflict is not heading towards de-escalation, but towards an even tighter negotiating frame. Iran thinks it is dealing the cards. Washington thinks it has better cards. Europe in between is measuring how much petrol for the summer is going to cost. The Balkans - caught between these two powers - have rivers of energy flowing through other people's markets. The question is whether anyone among our politicians is following this carefully, or only re-publishing EU press releases.